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REPORT: Current Term Enrollment Report – Fall 2013

Current Term Enrollment Estimates Report

Overview

In fall 2013, overall postsecondary enrollments decreased 1.5% from the previous fall. In fall 2013, enrollments decreased among four-year for-profit institutions (-9.7 percent) and two-year public institutions (-3.1 percent). However, enrollments increased slightly among four-year public institutions (+0.3%) and four-year private non-profit institutions (+1.3%).

Current Term Enrollment Estimates, published every December and May by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, include national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, region, enrollment intensity, age group, and gender. In addition, state-level enrollments have been added to the series. Enrollment estimates are adjusted for Clearinghouse data coverage rates by institutional sector, state, and year. As of fall 2013, postsecondary institutions actively submitting enrollment data to the Clearinghouse account for 96 percent of enrollments at U.S. Title IV, degree-granting institutions. Most institutions submit enrollment data to the Clearinghouse several times per term, resulting in highly current data. Moreover, since the Clearinghouse collects data at the student level, it is possible to report an unduplicated headcount, which avoids double-counting students who are simultaneously enrolled at multiple institutions.

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Figure 1: Percent Change from Previous Year, Enrollment by Sector (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)

Figure 1: Percent Change from Previous Year, Enrollment by Sector (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)

Figure 1 shows the 12-month percentage change (fall-to-fall and spring-to-spring) for each term over the last three years.


Table 1: Estimated National Enrollment by Sector (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)
FALL 2013 FALL 2012 FALL 2011
Sector Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year
Total Enrollment, All Sectors 19,885,203 -1.5% 20,195,924 -1.8% 20,556,272 0.2%
Four-Year, Public  7,796,119 0.3% 7,769,609 -0.6% 7,819,806 1.4%
Four-Year, Private Non-Profit  3,761,953 1.3% 3,714,967 0.5% 3,697,254 3.3%
Four-Year, For-Profit  1,321,107 -9.7% 1,463,097 -7.2% 1,577,290 -3.8%
Two-Year, Public  6,497,602 -3.1% 6,706,913 -3.1% 6,918,915 -1.6%
Unduplicated Student Headcount (All Sectors) 19,511,518 -1.4% 19,791,149 -1.7% 20,139,348 0.3%
UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Table 1 provides enrollment counts submitted to the Clearinghouse by December 1 of each year. Enrollments represent one student in one institution and thus would double-count a student enrolled simultaneously at two institutions. The unduplicated headcount provides the number of unique students with no double-counting. This figure can be used to determine the percentage of concurrent enrollments in any given year. In each term, about 2.0 percent of total enrollments can be accounted for by students enrolling in more than one institution.

Less-than-two-year institutions have been aggregated with two-year institutions. Two-year for-profits and two-year private nonprofits are not shown in the table due to small counts, but enrollments from those sectors are included in the overall totals. Additional notes on data and coverage are included at the end of this document.


Table 2: Estimated National Enrollment by Region (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)
FALL 2013 FALL 2012 FALL 2011
Sector Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year
Total Enrollment, All Regions  19,885,203 -1.5% 20,195,924 -1.8% 20,556,272 0.2%
Midwest  4,222,957 -2.6%  4,335,670 -2.4%  4,442,489 0.3%
Northeast  3,266,756 -0.3%  3,278,205 -0.7%  3,302,708 -0.3%
South  6,610,851 -0.9%  6,672,757 -1.6%  6,780,502 0.7%
West  4,589,891 -0.7%  4,621,155 -1.7%  4,702,643 1.6%
UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Table 2 provides enrollment counts by the region where the institution is located (states are grouped according to Census Bureau regions). Institutions that span multiple states have been excluded from the regional subtotals. However, these institutions are included in the national total. Additional notes on data and coverage are included at the end of this document.


Table 3: Estimated National Enrollment by Sector and Intensity Level (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)
FALL 2013 FALL 2012 FALL 2011
Sector Enrollment Intensity Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year
All Sectors Full-Time 12,477,913 -1.7% 12,694,838 -2.1% 12,965,914 -0.1%
Part-Time 7,407,290 -1.3% 7,501,086 -1.2% 7,590,358 0.8%
Four-Year, Public Full-Time 5,716,942 0.5% 5,685,696 -0.2% 5,699,533 1.4%
Part-Time 2,079,177 -0.2% 2,083,912 -1.7% 2,120,273 1.4%
Four-Year, Private Non-Profit Full-Time 2,900,544 0.7% 2,879,052 0.3% 2,869,996 3.3%
Part-Time 861,410 3.0% 835,915 1.0% 827,258 3.2%
Four-Year, For-Profit Full-Time 940,796
Part-Time 380,311
Two-Year, Public Full-Time 2,624,757 -2.9% 2,702,974 -5.7% 2,865,581 -5.3%
Part-Time 3,872,845 -3.3% 4,003,939 -1.2% 4,053,334 1.2%
UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Table 3 provides enrollment counts by the enrollment intensity of the student. Enrollment intensity is defined by the institution and based on the earliest data submitted for a student in any given term. As a result, the intensity generally reflects the student’s intended workload at the beginning of the term. Less-than-two-year institutions have been aggregated with two-year institutions. Two-year for-profits and two-year private nonprofits are not shown in the table due to small counts, but enrollments from those sectors are included in the overall totals.

Two large for-profit institutions began participating with the Clearinghouse in spring 2013, altering the ratio of full-time to part-time students. As a result, comparisons to prior years are not meaningful. Additional notes on data and coverage are included at the end of this document.


Table 4: Estimated National Enrollment by Sector and Age Group (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)

FALL 2013

FALL 2012

FALL 2011

Sector Age Group Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year
All Sectors 24 and Under 12,483,914 -0.4% 12,537,423 -0.7% 12,625,514 0.4%
Over 24 7,401,289 -3.4% 7,658,501 -3.4% 7,930,758 -0.1%
Four-Year, Public 24 and Under 5,505,086 1.4% 5,428,786 0.1% 5,425,278 1.7%
Over 24 2,291,033 -2.1% 2,340,822 -2.2% 2,394,528 0.7%
Four-Year, Private Non-Profit 24 and Under 2,312,383 0.7% 2,297,446 0.8% 2,278,933 2.5%
Over 24 1,449,570 2.3% 1,417,521 -0.1% 1,418,321 4.6%
Four-Year, For-Profit 24 and Under 246,339 -14.7% 288,929 -8.3% 315,249 -2.6%
Over 24 1,074,768 -8.5% 1,174,168 -7.0% 1,262,041 -4.1%
Two-Year, Public 24 and Under 3,981,052 -1.2% 4,028,340 -1.6% 4,091,941 -0.9%
Over 24 2,516,550 -6.0% 2,678,573 -5.2% 2,826,974 -2.5%
UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Table 4 provides enrollment counts by student age group. Student age is calculated as of the first day of the term (a date specific to the institution). Less-than-two-year institutions have been aggregated with two-year institutions. Two-year for-profits and two-year private nonprofits are not shown in the table due to small counts, but enrollments from those sectors are included in the overall totals. Additional notes on data and coverage are included at the end of this document.


Table 5: Estimated National Enrollment by Sector and Gender (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)

FALL 2013

FALL 2012

FALL 2011

Sector Gender Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year
All Sectors Men 8,540,032 -1.1% 8,637,456 -1.4% 8,761,736 -0.2%
Women 11,345,170 -1.8% 11,558,468 -2.0% 11,794,536 0.5%
Four-Year, Public Men 3,508,297 0.5% 3,489,234 -0.4% 3,502,658 1.6%
Women 4,287,822 0.2% 4,280,374 -0.9% 4,317,148 1.3%
Four-Year, Private Non-Profit Men 1,569,224 1.1% 1,551,429 0.8% 1,538,909 2.6%
Women 2,192,729 1.3% 2,163,538 0.2% 2,158,345 3.8%
Four-Year, For-Profit Men 444,861 -11.9% 504,718 -9.2% 555,712 -2.3%
Women 876,245 -8.6% 958,379 -6.2% 1,021,578 -4.5%
Two-Year, Public Men 2,789,751 -1.9% 2,843,165 -2.4% 2,912,195 -2.0%
Women 3,707,851 -4.0% 3,863,748 -3.6% 4,006,720 -1.3%
UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Table 5 provides enrollment counts by gender. Institutions reported student gender to the Clearinghouse for about one-third of all students. Gender was imputed based on first name for all other students. Less-than-two-year institutions have been aggregated with two-year institutions. Two-year for-profits and two-year private nonprofits are not shown in the table due to small counts, but enrollments from those sectors are included in the overall totals. Additional notes on data, coverage, and imputation of gender are included at the end of this document.


Table 6: Estimated Enrollment by State of Institution (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)
FALL 2013 FALL 2012 FALL 2011
State Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year Enrollment % Change from Prior Year
Multi-State Institutions  1,027,370 -6.7%  1,100,891 -12.9%  1,263,770 -11.8%
Alabama  286,410 -2.0%  292,289 -0.9%  294,853 -3.0%
Alaska  32,623 -4.4%  34,119 -3.8%  35,473 7.0%
Arizona  397,718 -5.9%  422,565 -1.2%  427,789 18.3%
Arkansas  167,154 0.1%  167,044 -6.5%  178,628 5.3%
California  2,516,524 0.4%  2,505,735 -2.1%  2,559,423 -0.7%
Colorado  306,967 -0.1%  307,141 -4.2%  320,626 2.1%
Connecticut  194,994 -0.9%  196,856 1.8%  193,381 -0.9%
Delaware  57,848 1.2%  57,153 1.9%  56,103 1.2%
District of Columbia  74,912 -2.5%  76,832 -1.1%  77,652 0.6%
Florida  1,055,846 -0.2%  1,057,879 -1.8%  1,077,332 5.0%
Georgia  503,452 -1.6%  511,712 -2.7%  525,734 -4.4%
Hawaii  62,253 -4.7%  65,320 -0.5%  65,638 -0.6%
Idaho  100,371 1.1%  99,283 2.7%  96,649 7.7%
Illinois  714,308 -2.9%  735,415 -3.0%  758,074 -1.8%
Indiana  386,892 -0.9%  390,527 -3.1%  402,850 0.0%
Iowa  291,765 -9.5%  322,291 -1.7%  327,712 5.0%
Kansas  200,219 -1.4%  203,089 -0.3%  203,748 1.5%
Kentucky  258,098 -3.3%  266,977 -3.9%  277,688 2.0%
Louisiana  231,959 -7.4%  250,465 -4.2%  261,494 2.5%
Maine  69,383 -1.7%  70,608 0.8%  70,051 -2.5%
Maryland  370,114 -3.1%  381,836 -1.5%  387,487 0.8%
Massachusetts  467,884 -0.5%  470,457 -1.5%  477,423 1.8%
Michigan  600,947 -3.7%  624,127 -1.5%  633,576 4.2%
Minnesota  397,330 -2.5%  407,652 -3.1%  420,655 -2.3%
Mississippi  168,276 -3.3%  174,029 -3.5%  180,310 0.1%
Missouri  399,669 -1.6%  406,028 -1.3%  411,508 2.3%
Montana  54,162 -0.4%  54,377 -2.8%  55,945 3.8%
Nebraska  136,118 0.0%  136,124 -4.1%  141,944 0.8%
Nevada  112,285 1.1%  111,109 -1.4%  112,736 4.2%
New Hampshire  93,599 12.9%  82,867 6.1%  78,112 4.4%
New Jersey  413,510 -0.8%  416,976 -1.0%  421,196 2.8%
New Mexico  140,512 -0.7%  141,432 -1.9%  144,202 -0.9%
New York  1,177,997 0.2%  1,176,092 -1.3%  1,191,463 -1.1%
North Carolina  543,182 -1.0%  548,549 -1.2%  555,392 -1.8%
North Dakota  54,731 -1.7%  55,661 -1.2%  56,359 5.2%
Ohio  652,248 -1.5%  662,373 -4.0%  689,862 -1.4%
Oklahoma  202,671 -1.5%  205,719 -2.6%  211,151 1.1%
Oregon  240,920 -3.1%  248,624 -1.9%  253,403 2.7%
Pennsylvania  735,709 -2.1%  751,367 -0.5%  755,158 -1.7%
Rhode Island  72,284 1.9%  70,913 -2.5%  72,722 -1.3%
South Carolina  245,117 -0.8%  247,059 0.4%  246,121 3.1%
South Dakota  47,590 -0.4%  47,798 5.3%  45,398 -7.9%
Tennessee  314,571 -1.9%  320,783 -0.1%  320,979 -1.0%
Texas  1,439,253 0.5%  1,431,875 0.1%  1,431,062 -1.1%
Utah  260,802 -1.2%  263,909 3.6%  254,731 3.7%
Vermont  41,396 -1.6%  42,068 -2.6%  43,201 -2.9%
Virginia  524,792 -0.5%  527,395 -0.3%  529,007 2.9%
Washington  333,247 -0.5%  334,756 -2.5%  343,300 -2.9%
West Virginia  167,194 7.8%  155,163 -8.5%  169,510 6.6%
Wisconsin  341,140 -1.0%  344,586 -1.8%  350,803 -1.4%
Wyoming  31,506 -3.9%  32,783 0.2%  32,729 -0.4%
UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Table 6 provides enrollment counts by the state where the institution is located. Institutions that span multiple states have been included in a separate line called “multi-state institutions.” Enrollments for these institutions are not included in any of the other state-level totals. Additional notes on data and coverage are included at the end of this document.


Notes on the Data

National Coverage of the Data

As of fall 2013, institutions actively submitting enrollment data to the Clearinghouse account for 96 percent of all enrollments at Title IV, degree-granting institutions in the nation. Because Clearinghouse participation grew over the period covered by this report, and because coverage of institutions (i.e., percentage of all institutions participating in the Clearinghouse) is not 100 percent for any individual year, weights were applied by institutional sector and state to better approximate enrollment figures for all institutions nationally. Using all IPEDS Title IV, degree-granting institutions as the base study population, weights for each institution type and state were calculated using the inverse of the rate of enrollment coverage for that sector or state in the relevant year. Given the unavailability of fall 2012 IPEDS enrollments at the time of publication, fall 2011 IPEDS enrollments were used as the basis for calculating the fall 2012 and fall 2013 Clearinghouse coverage rates.

For detailed statistics on enrollment coverage as well as several other aspects of Clearinghouse data, visit the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s “Working With Our Data” page.

Differences from IPEDS

National Student Clearinghouse data are nonadjudicated, administrative data that comes directly from college and university registrars. It differs from IPEDS survey data in a number of important ways:

  1. Term definition: Most institutions use an October 15 census date when counting fall enrollments for IPEDS, but institutions have some flexibility in determining whether a given term should be counted as a fall term. For Clearinghouse reporting, institutions provide the start- and end-dates for each enrollment, rather than formally designating fall or spring terms. Fall terms included in the Current Term Enrollment Estimates are those that:
    • began between August 15 and October 31, inclusive OR
    • ended between September 15 and November 30, inclusive OR
    • began before August 15 AND ended after November 30.
  2. Degree-granting status: When referencing IPEDS enrollment counts, it is important to distinguish counts limited to degree-granting institutions from those that also include non-degree granting institutions. NCES publishes both of these counts in IPEDS First-Look Reports. The Clearinghouse counts in this report are limited to Title IV, degree-granting institutions.
  3. Enrollment status changes: Institutions submit data to the Clearinghouse throughout a given term, capturing changes in enrollment status from one submission to the next. The counts in this report include all students whose institution submitted at least one enrollment record showing the student enrolled as either full time, half time, or less than half time during the term. For IPEDS reporting, an institution generally counts a student according to the student’s enrollment status as of the institution’s IPEDS census date.
  4. International students: As the Clearinghouse continues to enhance its data collections to better support the needs of the education community, enrollment records for international students are starting to become more complete than in past years. Because this is a recent development, in order to ensure consistent year-to-year comparisons, international students have been excluded from this report. (In the most recent years for which IPEDS data are available, about 3.4 percent of the total IPEDS enrollment is accounted for by the nonresident alien category.)
Imputation of Gender

Institutions reported student gender to the Clearinghouse for about one-third of all students included in this report. The genders for the remaining students were imputed using a table of name-gender pairs that the Research Center developed using data publicly available from the Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration as well as the institution-reported data. The imputation used only those pairs in which the name had at least two instances and was associated with a single gender in at least 95 percent of the instances. The imputation is accurate in 99.6 percent of the cases with known gender. A detailed document describing this approach resides on the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s “Working With Our Data” Web page.


Pearson Foundation

The Current Term Enrollment Estimates report was made possible through the generous support of the Pearson Foundation.


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